There are a LOT of black holes of unpredictability around. Forecasting political developments is a popular (and well-financed) activity with not that great record of success.
There are a LOT of black holes of unpredictability around. Forecasting political developments is a popular (and well-financed) activity with not that great record of success.
As an active participant (IEM/Intrade/GJP) in political forecasting, my own opinion is that most topics are far easier than North Korea, and when I am betting my money (or play money) on NK topics, I generally shrug and resort to simple base-rate reasoning.
Concede.
There are a LOT of black holes of unpredictability around. Forecasting political developments is a popular (and well-financed) activity with not that great record of success.
As an active participant (IEM/Intrade/GJP) in political forecasting, my own opinion is that most topics are far easier than North Korea, and when I am betting my money (or play money) on NK topics, I generally shrug and resort to simple base-rate reasoning.